What 146 Districts Taught Us About Getting Kids Back to School

TL; DR:

Chronic absenteeism is declining where consistent, early outreach took hold. The data shows the effort districts are putting in works, and it clearly points to where we need to go next.

Here’s what three years of attendance data across 1.17 million students tells us: absenteeism is predictable, and it’s preventable. We know who is likely to become chronically absent by Thanksgiving. We know that one well-timed, relevant outreach message can be enough to turn the pattern around. We know the approach works.

What the mid-year data adds to that picture is a clearer sense of where the work is done — and where it still needs to go.

The Progress is Real

Chronic absenteeism across 146 districts dropped from 22.44% to 18.98% over three years. Among students facing economic barriers, those learning English, and students in foster care, it dropped from 23.81% to 21.30%. At the grades with the most riding on them — 6th and 9th — the improvement is visible and meaningful.

Three years of consistent effort produced these results. Against a national backdrop where chronic absenteeism sits around 23%, roughly 50% above pre-pandemic levels, these districts are outperforming.

The reason is legible in the data: early identification, followed by outreach that connects rather than complies. Among students who received an early attendance communication, 48% didn’t need a follow-up. One relevant, timely message was enough.

The Work isn’t Finished

Students outside traditional risk categories are holding steady at nearly 1 in 5 chronically absent. And students without stable housing are chronically absent at 36.21% — nearly twice the rate of their stably-housed peers. That gap hasn’t narrowed in three years.

What the progress we’ve seen tells us is that these numbers are movable with the same approach that worked everywhere else: knowing early, reaching out personally, and building the kind of trust that brings a kid back to school. The question is whether we’re building systems that extend that to every student, not just the ones who fit the profile we already knew to look for.

We brought this data to Cecelia Leong of Attendance Works and our Manager of Data Science, Dr. Joy Smithson, and asked them both the hard questions. The conversation — including what Cecelia says about building family relationships before there’s ever a problem to solve — is worth watching.